Paper: Gartner Hype Cycle for Virtualization – 2010

Starting 1995, the analysis firm Gartner started using a graph called Hype Cycle to represent the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. missed the 2010 edition of the Hype Cycle for the virtualization market, released in June.

The 33-pages research that describes where different virtualization technologies are in the cycle, is available free of charge courtesy of Intel.
The mapping is really interesting for a number of reasons:

  • Workspace virtualization (a technology that usually calls platform wrapper referring to products like Microsoft MED-V or VMware ACE) is placed at the very bottom of the curve, in the Technology Trigger section, and Gartner suggests that it will require another 5 to 10 years before mainstream adoption
  • Smartphone hypervisors (like the upcoming VMware Mobile Virtualization Platform) are in the same section with the same timeline for mainstream adoption
  • Virtual machine introspection technology (enabled by security frameworks like VMware VMsafe for example) is almost in the Peak of Inflated Expectations section, and its mainstream adoption is expected within 2-5 years

  • Shared OS virtualization (a technology that usually calls OS virtualization referring to platforms like Parallels Virtuozzo Containers or Oracle Solaris Containers) already is in the Trough of Disillusionment section, just 2 to 5 years away from mainstream adoption
  • Hosted Virtual Desktops (or VDI) are in the same section, but Gartner forecasts a mainstream adoption in less than 2 years
  • None of the virtualization technologies in the Hype Cycle are yet in the Plateau of Productivity section
  • Gartner predicts that both Virtual Machine Recovery (backup of guest OSes from inside the VMs) and Hosted PC virtualization (products like VMware Workstation or Parallels Workstation) will become obsolete technologies before reaching the Plateau of Productivity