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VMware predicts the end of Windows in 5-10 years
Posted by Alessandro Perilli
| Wednesday, July 16, 2008
| 12 Comments
iTWire published today a more than hazardous prediction coming from VMware: the end of Windows and other monolithic operating systems by the next 5-10 years.
The source of such statement is Paul Harapin, Managing Director for Australia and New Zealand, who predicts the virtual appliances as capable of replacing the existing OSes.
Harapin adds that the change is already happening:
According to Paul Harapin, managing director for Australia and New Zealand at VMware, Windows and other large operating systems are already starting to be replaced by virtual appliances running on thin layers of Linux.
VMware launched the virtual appliance concept in February 2006 but in over two years virtualization.info couldn’t record a single customer that confirmed a full adoption of the technology (if there’s any we invite to comment this post and give an extensive feedback).
The feedbacks we got in these months confirm that at today the virtual appliance are seen as no more than another distribution vector, comparable to DVDs and USB keys.
We feel confident in saying that we are far, far away from the vision of a modular data center where the virtual appliance is the fundamental building block.
And this partially depends on the many issues that hinder the evolution of this technology: the lack of standardization (a challenge that the new OVF format is attempting to address), the many security risks that VA imply (at least in the current implementation), the complexity of the fine tuning, and much more.
While data center modularity (which doesn’t necessarily imply the disappear of Windows) certainly is a key milestone to reach the cloud computing infrastructure that VMware envisions, the timeframe to reach it seems much longer than mere 10 years.
The virtualization.info Virtualization Industry Predictions has been updated accordingly.
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12 Comments
Thomas
Wednesday, July 16, 2008 8:35:00 PM
Does anyone know if Phoenix' Hypercore will support OVF?
It would be nice to replace the thin linux layer with firmware like Hypercore.
It would be nice to replace the thin linux layer with firmware like Hypercore.
VMware just lost their CEO, their stock is way down and Microsoft just released HyperV. This looks like a pretty stupid way to change the conversation. Give me a break.
It is certainly a bold claim. I can see a trend for this happening in the server area. First time I've heard some predict there will be a large penetration into the desktop area.
I don't see this as the official opinion of VMware. Had this come from someone like Mendel Rosenblum, I would have been more worried. However, this has come from a regional (a very small region for VMware) executive. Hence I think a more accurate title would have been "VMware executive predicts...."
Also, in the execs defence I don't see anywhere in that article, where he was directly quoted as saying 5-10 years. That could be editorial embelishment on iTWire's account.
I don't see this as the official opinion of VMware. Had this come from someone like Mendel Rosenblum, I would have been more worried. However, this has come from a regional (a very small region for VMware) executive. Hence I think a more accurate title would have been "VMware executive predicts...."
Also, in the execs defence I don't see anywhere in that article, where he was directly quoted as saying 5-10 years. That could be editorial embelishment on iTWire's account.
Nik Simpson
Wednesday, July 16, 2008 11:40:00 PM
The silly thing about such comments (apart from the obvious hubris) is that they assume that Microsoft is going to just sit idly by while all this happens. First off I'd guess a good portion of the virtual environments 5 years from now will be running an MS hypervisor, and secondly, Windows 2008 core is already well along the path of a stripped down OS to host windows applications in virtual machines.
So while he may well be right about the OS/hypervisor relationship 5 years from now, it may not help VMware a whole lot ;-)
So while he may well be right about the OS/hypervisor relationship 5 years from now, it may not help VMware a whole lot ;-)
Mendel Rosenblum has stated the very same thing in a youtube video. There is a better chance of VMWare being dead in 2-5 years.....
Come on, OVF is standard as OOXML (microsoft office document) is. There's a good chance that 2 implementations that validate OVF, will be subtly broken when actually exchanging an OVF package.
I have seen the video you are talking about and in that Mendel says that Virtual Appliances will radically change the roll of the OS. No claims about Windows being dead in 5-10 years.
Agree with Nik. Windows is not going to stand around and let this happen. They are going to want a piece of it and they are changing. We've seen that with the core model they've moved to. Also have to agree that having created Windows appliances, they would be good candidate for being the Host.
One comment I would make is that one of the barriers to windows adoption as a virtual appliance host is their licensing. Yes they are not going to stand around and let this happen to that, however they are also going to want to make money as well. Having to pay for an OS for each appliance would be uneconomical for most appliance manufacturers. Today, for 2008 you need to pay the same price regardless of the role that is installed. That will need to change for them to capture this market. I'm sure they are thinking about this.
For the business I'm in, it would not make economical sense to move to anything but a Windows hosted appliance as we rely on so much other MS infrastructure in addition to just the OS e.g. .Net, SQL Server etc. The OS is only one part of the equation in terms of the infrastructure required to support an appliance.
Agree with Nik. Windows is not going to stand around and let this happen. They are going to want a piece of it and they are changing. We've seen that with the core model they've moved to. Also have to agree that having created Windows appliances, they would be good candidate for being the Host.
One comment I would make is that one of the barriers to windows adoption as a virtual appliance host is their licensing. Yes they are not going to stand around and let this happen to that, however they are also going to want to make money as well. Having to pay for an OS for each appliance would be uneconomical for most appliance manufacturers. Today, for 2008 you need to pay the same price regardless of the role that is installed. That will need to change for them to capture this market. I'm sure they are thinking about this.
For the business I'm in, it would not make economical sense to move to anything but a Windows hosted appliance as we rely on so much other MS infrastructure in addition to just the OS e.g. .Net, SQL Server etc. The OS is only one part of the equation in terms of the infrastructure required to support an appliance.
Serge
Thursday, July 17, 2008 11:42:00 AM
Microsoft have already thought about the licensing aspects. If you take DataCenter licenses for your physical hosts, you're completely covered for as many Windows Core hosts as you can fit on a Hyper-V server (an advantage MS has over VMware because you need to spend this money even if you use VMware as virtualization platform). With regards to Windows Core and stripped OS's specific for a certain function (virtual appliance), think of a server version of the NLite (and now VLite) product, that would be perfect for building a Windows VA.
VMware will be forced to drive down the pricing of VI3, they better do it quickly. Better yet, offer the hypervisor for free (get on level-playing field with MS) and charge for all the value-add software (think VirtualCenter, SRM, LM, etc...).
VMware will be forced to drive down the pricing of VI3, they better do it quickly. Better yet, offer the hypervisor for free (get on level-playing field with MS) and charge for all the value-add software (think VirtualCenter, SRM, LM, etc...).
You can find an example of OS replacement, which means a new way to run applications, with LiquidVM (BEA). With such a layer (something like a Java runtime working directly with VMware API) you are able to run an application with performance never met before.... Just have a look on it to make your own opinion.
Drue Reeves
Saturday, July 19, 2008 5:30:00 AM
True, Microsoft won't sit idly by while VMware exact their virtual appliance strategy, but that's not to say that Windows will survive int the form it currently exists. Nik and I actually had this debate about 4 months ago on the Burton Group Blog "Windows: Last of the Mohicans" http://dcsblog.burtongroup.com/data_center_strategies/2008/03/windows-server.html
The point is, to stay competitive, VMware has to make the OS irrelevant. In other words, show customers that applications don't require a bloated monolithic OS to run. Windows 2008, even in it's core/role based form is still overkill for many applications. The OS takes more memory and CPU that really needed to run...reducing consolidation ratios. Although far off, the prediction isn't without merit.
The point is, to stay competitive, VMware has to make the OS irrelevant. In other words, show customers that applications don't require a bloated monolithic OS to run. Windows 2008, even in it's core/role based form is still overkill for many applications. The OS takes more memory and CPU that really needed to run...reducing consolidation ratios. Although far off, the prediction isn't without merit.
Kashif Shaikh
Thursday, July 24, 2008 4:35:00 PM
I think there are only four types of people who want to run vmware:
Developers/Testers: Easier testing of software on multiple platforms using vmware.
NOC/Ops: With vmware Ops can deploy new machine images, backup existing images, migrate images, etc. easily. Their managability of machines is increased because the machine is now represented as a FILE that can be copied anywhere, executed anywhere, and backed up easily to tape in one shot.
Hosting Companies: Amazon S3, etc. can now deploy your software using virtual machines.
You and Me: I need vmware so I don't have to dual-boot between Linux/Windows or Apple/Windows. Parallels is doing interesting stuff here to make virtualization seamless.
Where I don't see vmware: On the desktop. While it would be cool to access your desktop "machine" from any network machine, plain old people like you and me want to be able to plug in new hardware and have it work immediately...like a usb camera device or a new graphics card.
Developers/Testers: Easier testing of software on multiple platforms using vmware.
NOC/Ops: With vmware Ops can deploy new machine images, backup existing images, migrate images, etc. easily. Their managability of machines is increased because the machine is now represented as a FILE that can be copied anywhere, executed anywhere, and backed up easily to tape in one shot.
Hosting Companies: Amazon S3, etc. can now deploy your software using virtual machines.
You and Me: I need vmware so I don't have to dual-boot between Linux/Windows or Apple/Windows. Parallels is doing interesting stuff here to make virtualization seamless.
Where I don't see vmware: On the desktop. While it would be cool to access your desktop "machine" from any network machine, plain old people like you and me want to be able to plug in new hardware and have it work immediately...like a usb camera device or a new graphics card.
Barry A.
Friday, January 30, 2009 7:55:00 AM
I see the end of VMware in 5-10 years if they keep making unfounded predictions and treat their customers poorly. They still refuse to negotiate a site license with the academic campus that spawned them. That says something very profound.
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